The impact of climate change on Spanish tourism
Tourism is one of the fundamental pillars of the Spanish economy, accounting for around 11.6% of GDP and providing employment for 9.3% of the population. This sector, which has historically benefited from favorable climatic conditions in coastal and urban areas, is facing a crucial challenge: climate change.
According to the study Climate change scenarios and the evolution of Spanish tourismprepared by BBVA Research, climate change could generate profound changes in tourism demand over the coming decades. The report analyzes how variations in temperature, precipitation and other climatic factors, under different scenarios of carbon emissions, will impact tourism in the various provinces of Spain until the year 2100.
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What about sustainability?
Climate has traditionally been a determining factor for tourism in Spain, especially in the country's southern and eastern coastal regions, where warm summers and beaches attract millions of tourists each year. However, this model of sun and beach tourism is at risk from rising temperatures.
The aforementioned BBVA Research study is based on two key indicators to measure the climate comfort of tourism destinations: the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) and the Tourism Climate Index (TCI). Tourism Climate Index (TCI) and the Holiday Climate Index (HCI).. Both indices consider factors such as temperature, humidity, precipitation and wind speed to calculate how attractive climatic conditions will be for tourists in the future.
Through these indicators, the report shows that the impact of climate change on Spanish tourism will be complex and will differ by region and type of tourism.
Climate change scenarios and their implications
The report analyzes three possible carbon emissions scenarios, known as RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, which project global average temperature increases of 1.8°C, 2.8°C and 4.8°C respectively by the year 2100. The results suggest that, under the most severe warming scenarios, tourism in southern and eastern coastal regions, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean coast and islands, could suffer a significant decrease in demand.
In the most extreme scenario (RCP 8.5), the study projects a 7% drop in tourism demand across the country by the year 2100, with losses of up to 60% in the Balearic Islands during the summer months. This result is worrying, considering that Spain is highly dependent on tourism in these regions.
However, not all areas would be affected in the same way: northern coastal regions, such as Asturias and Galicia, could benefit from higher temperatures, with a projected increase in tourism demand of up to 5.8%.
Changes in seasonality
One of the most relevant findings of the study is the possible deseasonalization of tourism. As summers become hotter for tourists in traditionally warm regions, such as southern and eastern Spain, demand is expected to shift to spring and autumn. This phenomenon could lengthen the tourist season in many regions, presenting an opportunity to diversify revenues and reduce dependence on tourism in the summer months.
In the moderate scenario (RCP 4.5), which projects a global temperature increase of 2.8°C, a 0.6% decrease in domestic tourism demand is expected during the summer months, while demand is expected to increase in the spring, especially in coastal areas. This adaptation could be key to maintaining tourism stability in regions where excessive heat could discourage tourists.
Regional differences in impact
The impact of climate change on Spanish tourism will be uneven. Northern areas of Spain, which traditionally have cooler climates, could become more attractive as temperatures rise. According to the study, provinces such as Asturias, Galicia and Cantabria could experience an increase in tourism demand of up to 6.9% by the end of the 21st century. This change could transform the north into a new benchmark for tourism.
However, this opportunity also poses a challenge: tourism infrastructure in the north is not as developed as in the southern and eastern coastal areas, which could lead to capacity and sustainability problems in the long term. The southern and eastern regions, especially the Balearic Islands and the Mediterranean coasts, will face the greatest difficulties.
Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, high temperatures could make summers in these areas uncomfortable and even dangerous for tourists. This could lead to a drastic decrease in demand during the summer months, although in some areas, such as the Balearic Islands, this decline could be offset by an increase in demand in the fall.
Urban and nature tourism
Urban tourism, unlike sun and beach tourism, seems less vulnerable to weather changes, as activities tend to be less dependent on weather conditions. However, cities in southern Spain, such as Seville and Malaga, could experience a decrease in tourists in summer due to extreme temperatures. On the other hand, northern cities could benefit from an increase in demand during spring and autumn.
Mountain and nature tourism will also experience significant changes. Ski resorts in the Pyrenees and Sierra Nevada could face reduced snowfall, which will affect the winter sports seasons. However, hiking and ecotourism could become more popular in spring and autumn, with a projected increase in demand of up to 0.6%.
Challenges and opportunities for the tourism sector
Climate change presents challenges and opportunities for the Spanish tourism sector. Regions that have traditionally relied on the high summer season will have to adapt to a new reality. This could include the diversification of tourism products to attract visitors during other times of the year, such as the development of cultural, gastronomic, sports and wellness activities.
In addition, it will be essential to invest in climate change-adapted tourism infrastructure to mitigate the effects of climate change. In the areas most affected by heat, the creation of air-conditioned spaces, shaded areas and advanced water management systems could improve the comfort of tourists and mitigate the adverse effects of extreme temperatures.
At the same time, flexible school and work schedules, as well as the promotion of teleworking, could help families to enjoy their vacations during less crowded periods, thus extending the tourist season.
Adaptation strategies and climate resilience
To ensure the resilience of Spanish tourism, it will be key for the sector to adopt strategies that promote sustainability and anticipate the effects of climate change. Authorities and private actors will have to work together to design policies that promote sustainable tourism, reduce the carbon footprint and encourage the adaptation of the most vulnerable tourist destinations. On the other hand, it will be necessary to promote the use of technologies that help monitor climate changes in real time, allowing companies in the sector to adjust their operations and offers according to weather conditions.
Climate change poses a critical challenge for the future of tourism in Spain. While some regions could benefit from rising temperatures, others will face large losses in demand during the summer months. With proper planning and innovative adaptation strategies, Spain has the opportunity to mitigate negative impacts and develop a more sustainable, resilient and diversified tourism model.
The Spanish tourism sector must be prepared to face an uncertain future, adopting policies that promote climate resilience and taking advantage of emerging opportunities in a world increasingly affected by climate change. Adaptive capacity and innovation will be key for tourism to remain a fundamental pillar of the Spanish economy in the coming decades.